Understanding and Explaining President Trump; Can it be Done?

1. Introduction

1.1. This analysis necessarily combines description, interpretation, and evaluation. These should be evident.

1.2. Any assessment of a person still active is necessarily incomplete.

1.3. This analysis places much emphasis on honesty and accuracy because that is probably the most controversial and consequential component in the developing Trump legacy.

1.4. This analysis focuses mainly on the negative because that is where the peculiarity and astonishment are the greatest. The extent of false presidential statements is causing puzzlement and consternation throughout the world.

2. The basic challenges in understanding and explaining President Donald J. Trump

2.1. We cannot always believe what Trump says; we don't always know when to believe him.

2.2. Trump is inconsistent in his statements and his policies. Sometimes they also change quite dramatically. e.g. his attitude to NATO; his policies towards North Korea; his stance towards Canada.

2.3. Because the Trump legacy is still incomplete, any current evaluation must be tentative.

2.4. In two respects we have no one with whom to compare Trump. First, he is the first president who has been neither a military general nor a politician. Second, no previous president has behaved in a remotely similar manner. e.g. calling all mainstream media “fake news”.

3. The positive realities

3.1. Under Trump the US economy is probably as strong as it has ever been in peacetime. The stock market gains and the low unemployment rates are especially impressive. We are well-advised, however, to be cautious about believing all the claims made by Trump. For example, the economy created 214,000 jobs a month in Obama's second term but only 174,000 per month in Trump's first year.

3.2. Political involvement by the population is exceptionally high.

3.3. Certain major problems are being addressed. e.g. elimination of many rules and regulations; some

trade imbalances are being addressed; energy self-sufficiency is being promoted; and in the minds of many, America is reasserting itself.

3.4. Trump is an effective communicator, a billionaire who manages to identify easily with common folk. His street language, even his vulgarity, seems to connect with many people.

3.5. Trump has boldly challenged power structures in a way and to an extent no previous president has dared to do.

3.6. Trump may not have made the U.S. a greater country in the international perception but he has done so for many Republicans, and perhaps some others, and for them – and him - that's what counts.

4. President Trump and American history

4.1. We cannot understand Trump and his considerable public support without reminding ourselves of key elements in American history. The slogan “Make America Great Again” can be interpreted variously. For many Americans it harks back to earlier times. Significantly, to a considerable extent many of Trump's values can be traced to the popular and acclaimed values of previous centuries. For some patriots Trump personifies their cherished and long-standing assumptions, values, and aspirations. For example, the belief in American “exceptionalism”, the belief in Christian-Americanism, the belief in American Manifest Destiny, and the belief in American superiority.

4.2. The following statements, some by by experts, help us to understand the Trump phenomenon.

“In the United States, religion is...mingled with all the habits of the nation and all the feelings of patriotism, whence it derives a peculiar force.” Alexis de Tocqueville, 1831

The 1620 Mayflower Compact, drawn up by the first settlers in what became the United States, asserted that the intention of these pioneers was “to advance the cause of Christ” and “to serve God”.

In 1848, prominent American William A. Scott wrote that “God has a great design for this continent – for our generation. As the Jews of old...as our fathers of 1776 – so are we, as a race and as a nation, a

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peculiar people and called to a high and glorious destiny.” Shades of such nativism linger, at least subconsciously. Consider An American Bible and A Christian History of the Constitution.

Concerning the Spanish-American War, April 25, 1898 to December 10, 1898, President McKinley wrote as follows: “I walked the floor of the White House night after night until midnight; and I am not ashamed to tell you, gentlemen that I went on my knees and prayed to Almighty God for light and guidance more than one night. And one night it came to me this way – that there was nothing left for us to do but to take them all [the people in the Spanish colonies], and to educate the Filipinos and uplift and civilize them, as fellowmen for whom Christ also died. And then I went to bed and went to sleep and slept soundly.” The Christian Advocate, January 22, 1903 We have here an amazing amalgam of patriotism, imperialism, military action, and what Christians call “the Great Commission”.

Historian Albert Beveridge, a U.S. senator from 1899 until 2011, was a widely revered and much quoted national leader. In one of his famous speeches he said the following: “He [God] has marked the American people as His chosen nation to finally lead in the regeneration of the world. This is the divine mission of America, and it holds for us all the profit, all the glory, all the happiness possible to man. We are trustees of the world's progress, guardians of its righteous peace. The judgment of the Master is upon us. “Ye have been faithful over a few things, I will make you ruler over many things'.”

While such thinking is no longer a foundational concept in the American self-image, it pervaded school text\books well into the twentieth century and found a much milder expression in the dominant 20th century foreign policy guideline termed Manifest Destiny. For some Americans, President Trump's call for America to become great again, has a historical ring to it. Statements about American exceptionalism and superiority still echo across the land. During the 2016 presidential election, President Trump and other candidates were often queried on their belief in American exceptionalism.

Let me not be misunderstood. I don't want to overstate the case but I also don't want to under-rate its significance. Many Americans, including some leaders, still see the US as an agency through which God works, not only works but works uniquely. I believe that sometimes God does carry out his plan through political agencies but that acknowledgment is not synonymous with the notion that the U.S. is God's favourite country, his new Israel. Subtle and sometimes not so subtle appeals to that orientation and mindset persist. It is ironic that a president who hardly makes Christian ethics normative in his life, has evoked massive support among Christians by supporting certain Christian and conservative values.

5. President Trump's apparent personality and character flaws

5.1. Trump delights in being abrasive. This trait was frequently evident in his television shows when he shouted to some poor souls, “You're fired!” In speaking about some football players who knelt when the national anthem was sung and to some other groups he still shouts “You're fired!” Instead of diplomatic or kind words of conciliation we often hear abrasive assertions against those with whom he disagrees. A fairly recent video has been especially indicting. Recently a fellow politician called

him “a businessman without a conscience”. {Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, October 18, 2018, CNN)

5.2. It seems that, in principle, Trump does not apologize. He justifies this by saying that he tries to avoid making any mistakes.

5.3. At various times and in various ways Trump exhibits a compelling desire, almost an obsession, to be first, best, and biggest.

5.4. It seems that Trump has a colorful record of sexual philandering, at least according to those who claim they philandered with him. Significantly, on occasion he has boasted about his sexual prowess and opportunities.

5.5. Particularly noteworthy are some of the numerous self-descriptions by Trump: 2

*Concerning his assistance to fellow Republicans in the November 6, 2018 election campaigns he stated: “I think I'm helping people....I don't believe anybody [else] has ever had this kind of impact.” (Reported in the media, October 18, 2018)

*Some time ago, in a briefing to reporters, Trump stated that he is respected in China due to his “very, very large brain”.

*”All of the women on The Apprentice (TV show) flirted with me – consciously or unconsciously. That's to be expected.” (Quoted in How to get Rich, 2004) It is not explained how he knew what the women thought “unconsciously”.

*The Washington Post quoted Trump as saying I'm “very smart” and I'm “a very stable genius”.

*”Some people would say I'm very, very, very intelligent.” March 3, 2000

*Trump's self-assessment is that “Nobody has ever been more successful than me.” February 6, 2015

*”Sorry losers and haters, but my IQ is one of the highest and you all know it. Please don't feel so stupid and insecure, it's not your fault.” May 9, 2013

*It is clear that Trump truly believes that he is incredibly brilliant, exceptionally astute, exceptionally knowledgeable, and altogether very capable. At various times during his presidency he has stated that he knows economics better than the economists, he knows foreign policy better than the diplomats and professionals, and that he knows military matters better than the generals. If you don't believe that to be the case, then you are likely to be called a loser.

6. President Trump's problems with veracity; his habit of departing from the truth

6.1. Examples of exaggeration:

*”North Korea has agreed to denuclearization.” April 22, 2018 There has not been any such agreement. Such an outcome remains a hope.

*Concerning immigration cases “we have thousands of judges.” May 30, 2018 The actual number is fewer than 400.

*”China will be allowed to build hundreds of additional coal plants. So we can't build the plants, but they can. According to the [Paris] Agreement.” June 5, 2017 The agreement placed no limits on any country in building coal-fueled plants but urged all countries not to build any more..

6.2. A typical understatement:

*Commenting on Michael Cohen, his long-time lawyer and “personal fixer”, Trump stated, “I hardly knew him.” When Cohen got into legal difficulty, Trump tried to distance himself from him.

6.3. Reckless promises; stupid statements:

*I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I would not lose voters.”

January 23, 2016

*”John McCain [is] not a war hero. I like people that weren't captured.” July 18, 2015

*”The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.” June 10, 2010

*”I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will have Mexico pay for that. Mark my

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words.” June 15, 2015 When, as reasonable people predicted, Mexico refused to pay for any such wall, Trump changed his rhetoric and informed Congress that if it would not provide major funding for his Mexico wall, he might not sign the nation's budget bill. There has been no acknowledgment, let alone confession or apology, that his much-repeated claim about Mexican funding has come to nothing.

6.4. The blatant false statements

*”How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very sacred election process.”

May 4, 2014. The accusation was totally false

*”109 people out of hundreds of thousands” were affected by the immigration executive order.” February 6, 2017. The actual number of people affected was about 60,000.

*”Millions of illegal votes” cost Trump majority support. January 23, 2017 There is absolutely no

evidence that any such votes were cast.

*”If you're from Syria and you are a Christian, you cannot come into this country” as a refugee.

July 20, 2015 False. There is no religious test and many Syrian Christians have come as refugees.

*Illegal immigration “wasn't a subject on anybody's mind until I brought it up at my announcement.”

August 7, 2015 False. The topic was widely discussed by politicians, academics, and others.

*”We had a massive landslide victory in the Electoral College.” False. Trump's 2016 Electoral College numbers rank in the bottom quarter of all successful presidential candidates.

*”U.S. Steel just announced that they are building six new steel mills.” August 2, 2018 There was no such announcement and no new steel mills are being built.

*”Black home-ownership just hit the highest level it has ever been in the history of our country.”

December 11, 2017 It has fallen almost every year since 2004.

*”Wisconsin's effective unemployment rate is 20%.” March 30, 2016. The actual effective unemployment rate was under 10%.

*”South Korea doesn't pay the United States for U.S. troops that protect their country.” April, 2011

False. South Korea pays the U.S. almost $700 million each year.

*Americans are the “only ones to have birthright citizenship.” A statement repeated many times. False. At least 32 other countries, including Canada, grant citizenship to children born in that country.

“Wow, our highest poll numbers in the history of the Republican Party. That includes Honest Abe Lincoln and Ronald Reagan.” July 30, 2018 Trump is wrong about Reagan and, of course, there were no poll numbers in Lincoln's time.

6.5. Various media people and political pundits have attempted to count the number of false statements made by President Trump. On August 1, 2018, the Washington Post reported that by their count in the previous 558 days President Trump had made 4,229 false statements. The Post added that some of these had been repeated many times. One writer labeled Trump “A narcissist with a monumental ego.”

6.6. Let me add a personal note. On numerous occasions I have believed statistical claims made by President Trump, especially about the economy. I assumed he was being truthful because he must surely know that if he were not, he would be shamed and humiliated in the media. Apparently any such fear of being found wrong in his statistical assertions has not caused him to be more careful and truthful in reporting “the facts”. 4

7. President Trump's political failings

7.1. He fails to distinguish between electoral campaigning and governing. This is a crucial mistake.

7.2. He tends to denounce those with whom he disagrees. He has difficulty granting legitimacy to alternative views and perspectives. He tends to see critics as part of a larger, continuing struggle.

7.3. He does not practice consensus-building, an essential component of successful statesmanship. He fails to understand that after an electoral or other political victory you do not alienate the vanquished or the defeated, you build bridges and seek reconciliation and positive relationships for the future.

7.4. He seems to see nothing inherently wrong and evil in brutal dictatorships as in North Korea and Saudi Arabia.

7.5. He naively believes what dictators tell him. He quotes them to prove his point as British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain did about the promises Adolph Hitler made to him, on paper, in September, 1938. In October, 2018 Trump has been satisfied to allow the murderous Saudi regime to investigate its own murder.

7.6. He publicly criticizes his own most senior subordinates. That is both novel and self-defeating.

7.7. He needlessly alienates people whose support he needs. .

“It is a sad commentary [that] little boy Marco Rubio can't win in his home state. Floridians despise him as an opportunist phony.” February 28, 2016 Time and again Trump would need Rubio's vote in the senate.

7.8. He tends to see politics mainly in economic terms. Politics involves making deals, in being a winner.

7.9. He blurs the distinction between his own financial success and the country's interests. For example, he stated in October, 2018 that he did not want to be too critical of Saudi rulers who had, after all, done major deals with him in the hotel business. Unembarrassed, he mentioned these in his political report.

7.10. He fails to distinguish clearly between his role as GOP leader, speaking for part of the population, and his role as president where he must speak for the entire country.

8. Why did President Trump win in 2016 and why is he still relatively popular?

Note: President Trump has 45 million tweet followers.

8.1. The American public had legitimate grievances against the Washington government.

*Some unfair international trade practices had developed. e.g the auto sales to some Asian countries.

*The national government had generated a mountain of regulations.

*The presence of millions of undocumented aliens, sometimes working for low wages, was resented by many American citizens.

*The escalating national debt was a very serious problem.

*The border with Mexico was rather porous. Thousands of people were crossing that border illegally.

*The U.S. had experienced some embarrassing setbacks and failures in foreign policy. e.g. in Libya, in Iraq, in Syria, in Yemen, in North Korea, in Cuba, at the UN, etc.

*For a variety of reasons ranging from a belief that President Clinton had not been adequately punished for his immoral behaviour to a deep resentment of Hilary Clinton for her polices, some untrue reports by her, and her championing of causes such as abortion and affirmation of homosexual behavior, many Americans detested her.

*Many saw Trump as the lesser of two evils.

In much of American society there is deep admiration for a self-made millionaire and more for a self- made billionaire – even if he is not altogether self-made.

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8.2. For many Americans the measure of a man is his wealth. Trump epitomizes ultimate American success.

8.3. President Trump is out-of-touch with most elites but in touch with a wide spectrum of ordinary folk. To

a considerable extent they accept his follies as similar to their own and as not crucial to his political performance.

8.4. Trump has demonstrated amazing expertise in the use of social media.

8.5. Many common folk are suspicious of elites even while also envying them. When Trump attacks elites, including the “fake news” networks, they tend to agree with him. They, too, have for various reasons come to mistrust much of what they are told, especially about politics. They resonate with his attacks.

8.6. The American collective ego has been increasingly bruised by the rising Chinese economic colossus.

8.8. The role of the U.S. as the world's only superpower is gradually being challenged. In the minds of many voters, this trend must be reversed. This is not how history should unfold. America must be first!

8.9. Why do many Christian Americans, especially in the evangelical sector, staunchly support Trump?

*These people know that the Supreme Court has become increasingly activist and has increasingly ruled against them and against moral issues they hold dear. They saw in Donald Trump a potential and then an actual president who would change the Supreme Court by appointing truly conservative, hopefully Christian, justices. Developments relating to the last several such judicial appointments, especially Judge Cavanaugh's case, have proven them to be right.

*Their utter dislike, almost hatred, of Hilary Clinton was and remains crucial. When some conservative Christian leaders first informed society about Bill Clinton's immoral activities, Hilary called them “right-wing extremists”. They have never forgiven her nor has she apologized to them.

*Many conservative Christians, wanting to have a conservative, Christian leader, naively overlooked Trump's own record and believed his words about their values.

*Although a billionaire, Trump speaks street language which, for many, is a welcome change.

*The religious sector tends to be very patriotic. Trump's call to “Make America great again” resonated with their love of their land, their desire for approval, and their yearning to again make the U.S. a powerful, capitalist, Christian, and dominant superpower.

*The rapid secularization of American society has shocked the Christian community. In the absence of any fully-committed Christian to champion their cause nationally, large swaths of the Christian community rallied around a leader who at least identified with them with his words even though not in his actions. Better a compromised champion than no champion.

*In part the broad Christian and general support for President Trump remains an unsolved mystery.

9. Conclusion

9.1. Many of President Trump's shortcomings are found also in quite a few former presidents as well as other political notables. Thus, in part, his weaknesses are only other leaders' weaknesses writ large.

9.2. It is ironic that the U.S., perhaps the most assertive western country in its insistence on separation of church and state, may also be the strongest in infusing its nationalism with Christian ideas and slogans.

9.3.National and international pundits and reporters discuss and analyze what Trump may mean for the U.S. and for the world. The crucial question for all of them and, indeed, for all of humanity, may be how President Trump manages the nuclear threat and U.S. nuclear capability.

9.4.I close with the assessment of a studious observer: “Donald Trump is unlike any president we've ever had. He is the only person ever elected to be commandeer-in-chief who has not first held public office or served as a general in the military. His principles grow out of five decades of business and celebrity success – not politics – so he behaves differently than do traditional politicians....The presidency of Donald Trump marks a profound change in the trajectory of American government, politics, and culture.” A more nuanced evaluation of this presidency must await until its completion.